Análisis técnico. ¿Qué escala usar, lineal o logarítmica?.

Al hilo del análisis publicado el fin de semana sobre el Banco Popular, y ya que hace tiempo que no ponía nada de formación, voy a poner varios ejemplos para argumentar el porqué es preferible estudiar los gráficos en escala logarítmica en vez de la que suele venir por defecto en los programas que es la lineal.

Pero primero, para los no iniciados, vamos a explicar en qué se diferencia una de otra. La escala lineal es la que da la misma distancia en el gráfico a incrementos del precio de las mismas unidades. Así, en escala lineal, habrá la misma distancia entre 10 y 11 que entre 100 y 101. La escala logarítmica da la misma distancia en el gráfico a los mismos incrementos porcentuales, de forma que habrá la misma distancia en un salto entre 1 y 2 que en otro entre 10 y 20. En bolsa lo que se persiguen son revalorizaciones de la inversión, por lo que parece más razonable usar la escala logarítmica que la lineal, pero además visualmente puede darnos problemas el usar la lineal como veremos en los siguientes ejemplos. Ya que tenía preparado uno de los gráficos, uso el Banco Popular para demostrar como las líneas de tendencia se deben trazar en gráficos logarítmicos (hay una excepción que comentaré al final), sobre todo en gráficos de largo plazo.   Análisis del Banco Popular diario_1 101119   El primer gráfico es el que puse en el artículo del fin de semana, en el que vemos como se puede trazar una directriz bajista a la que ha tocado en cuatro ocasiones. En el quinto intento se queda corto y se gira un poco antes de llegar a ella, síntoma de debilidad, y en una sexta subida ni siquiera se aproxima a ella y se gira bastante antes.

Vamos a ver ahora lo que habría pasado con el gráfico en escala lineal.


Análisis del Banco Popular diario_lineal 101119   La primera directriz trazada, en azul oscuro, parece que funciona bien y en el tercer toque rechaza el precio y reanuda la tendencia bajista, pero veamos lo que pasa en el punto 1. Después de una caída dura parece que ataca seriamente los 6-6,10 euros, por fin rompe la resistencia y la directriz bajista y se va hasta los 7 y pico, donde se gira y vuelve a la zona rota. Normal, un throw-back, nos confiamos y catapum, el que no tuviera stop por debajo de los 6 euros vería como se le va hasta los 4,50. Pero es que lo mismo lo hace otras cuatro veces en los puntos siguientes (del 2 al 5). He preparado una ampliación para verlo más en detalle.  

Análisis del Banco Popular diario_lineal_2 101119

  Una vez que ha roto la directriz bajista y se ha vuelto a girar, habría que retrazar la directriz por el nuevo máximo. Esa es la línea naranja que, como se puede ver, supera en 5,60, se va a 5,80 y vuelve a meterse por debajo de ella para marcar un nuevo mínimo. Lo mismo, retrazamos de nuevo y tenemos la directriz verde, que rompe en 5,11, se va a 5,26 y vuelta abajo, retrazamos con la línea azul claro, intenta superar la línea verde por segunda ocasión y fracasa de nuevo, rompe la verde y la azul claro pero vuelta abajo y otra directriz nueva (la morada). ¿Qué ha pasado para que hayamos tenido 5 entradas falsas?, pues que estábamos mirando la línea equivocada. Volved a mirar el primer gráfico, el logarítmico, y veréis que la tendencia bajista estaba ahí de forma permanente, aunque al mirarla distorsionada por la escala lineal nos pareciera que se rompía. Arriba puse que había una excepción, ¿cuál es?, pues si me perdonáis la broma a veces "el cuidador" no debe haber estudiado esto y debe usar escala lineal, porque en algunas ocasiones se ve que la directriz buena está en el gráfico lineal. A largo plazo no es lo habitual, pero a veces ocurre. ¿Qué hacer en estos casos?, pues seguir el gráfico que mejor se haya demostrado en el pasado que ha funcionado para ese valor en concreto, sin dejar de echar un ojo de vez en cuando al otro por si "cambia la moda".

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